XRP is trading around $2.20, flat on the day and up roughly 1.5% over the past week. While the price trend appears stable on the surface, on-chain data shows a shift in holder behavior that could signal weakening conviction among long-term investors.
Short-term holders continue to accumulate
HODL Waves data shows short-term holders remain supportive.
• The 1–3 month holding band increased from 8.80% to 9.48% since November 11.
• The 1 week–1 month band rose from 4.97% to 6.99%.
These are typically the first groups to sell during volatility, but instead they have been adding to their positions.
Long-term holders turn net negative
The pressure point comes from long-term holders.
Hodler Net Position Change shows:
• On November 23, long-term wallets sold 54 million XRP.
• By November 25, selling increased to 84 million XRP — a jump of 56%.
This mirrors a similar selling spike between November 16–18, which was followed by a 12% drop in XRP from $2.22 to $1.96.
NUPL signals rising profit-taking pressure
Long-term holder NUPL is now near 0.50, placing it in the belief–denial zone — historically a region associated with local tops and profit-taking behavior.
The last time NUPL touched this area, on November 18, XRP corrected shortly after.
Red flag: conviction among long-term holders is weakening
With long-term holders holding substantial unrealized profits and selling accelerating, on-chain data indicates a growing incentive to take profits, even as short-term holders accumulate.
For now, XRP’s price remains steady — but long-term holder selling is the key risk metric to watch.
